Electoral Constituency Arrangements for Ethiopia’s House of Peoples’ Representatives: The Impact of Administration Boundary Changes and Absence of Population Census

This assessment, Electoral Constituency Arrangements for Ethiopia's House of Peoples' Representatives: The Impact of Administration Boundary Changes and Absence of Population Census, assesses the effectiveness of Ethiopia's current electoral constituency delimitations. The study focuses on the impact of two main issues: the lack of a recent nationwide population census and continuous changes to administrative borders.

Key Findings:

• Outdated Delimitation and Malapportionment: Ethiopia continues to rely on electoral constituency boundaries established in 1994, which were based on projections from the 1984 census. Despite a 2007 census, the constituencies were never revised. This has led to significant malapportionment, where constituencies vary greatly in population size, potentially violating the "one person, one vote, one value" (OPOVOV) principle and undermining representation.
• Impact of Administrative Changes: Continuous changes to administrative boundaries since 1994, through referendums and regional restructuring (e.g., in Begi, Mieso, Wondo Genet, and the creation of Sidama, Central Ethiopia, South Ethiopia, and South West Ethiopia Peoples' Regions), have caused some voters to cast votes in constituencies outside their administrative boundaries, sometimes even in another Regional State. This severs the link between local administration and national representation.
• Weaknesses in the Legal and Procedural Framework:
  • The process lacks impartiality, as the House of the Federation (HoF) delimits constituencies based on a proposal from the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), rather than an independent, non-partisan body.
  • There is a lack of transparency and public consultation, with the law only requiring the "decided" constituency list to be announced 180 days before candidate registration.
  • Laws regarding constituency revision are unclear and shallow. The FDRE Constitution links revision to census results (every 10 years), but the Electoral Proclamation makes revision a discretionary action ("may be rearranged").
  • The clear criteria for determining which minority nationalities and peoples require special representation (reserving at least 20 seats in the HoPR) by the HoF are still overdue, leading to uncertainty and potential disenfranchisement, as seen in the West Omo Zone case.

Strengths Identified:

• Simplicity and Stability: The single-member constituency system is easy for voters to understand and promotes a strong link between representatives and their constituents.
• Alignment with Administrative Boundaries (Initial): The initial 1994 delimitation used Woredas as a basis, which theoretically aligns with geographical communities of interest.
• Managed Deviations (Theoretically): Current electoral law allows for a maximum average population deviation of 15% between ordinary constituencies, although this provision has not been applied yet due to the lack of revision.

Key Recommendations:

1. Ensure Impartiality: Establish an independent and non-partisan boundary commission or authority with constitutionally guaranteed independence and final decision-making authority on technical delimitation.
2. Periodic Revision: Mandate the revision of constituency delimitation through a statutory interval (e.g., every 10 years).
3. Event-Based Triggers: Introduce legal reform to make a significant population deviation (e.g., 15%) automatically trigger a review of constituency delimitations.
4. Ensure Public Participation: Develop a legal framework that establishes a structured public consultation process, including timely publication of draft maps, accessible public hearings, and a mechanism for submitting grievances to the judiciary.
5. Develop Clear Criteria for Minority Representation: The HoF must develop, adopt, and publicize clearly defined, comprehensive, and objectively verifiable criteria for special representation that go beyond population numbers.
6. Address Administrative Boundary Misalignment: Legislation should stipulate that substantive changes to administrative boundaries automatically trigger a review for realignment of electoral constituency boundaries within a specified timeframe.
7. Resource Allocation: Allocate adequate financial, technical, and human resources to the NEBE (or new delimitation body) and the Ethiopian Statistics Service for conducting censuses and managing the delimitation process.